Charter of Laura Canali – 2021
The geopolitical review of 12 January.
TODAY’S INTERESTING NEWS
- Ukrainian War – new Russian chain of command. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has announced another realignment of officers leading the war in Ukraine. General Valery Gerasimov becomes general commander of the campaign war, while the current commander Sergej Surovikin will become one of his three deputies, alongside Oleg Saljukov (commander in chief of the land forces) and Alexey Kim (deputy chief of staff). In terms of bureaucratic hierarchy, the announcement it does not represent an upheaval, as Surovikin already reported directly to Gerasimov. According to Russian TV commentator Sergei Markov, “neither Surovikin nor Gerasimov is punished, it’s all a team – obviously with the competition, which always happens among top dogs». The decision puts Gerasimov, who has been the chief of staff for more than a decade, closer to directly overseeing the operation. The Russian Defense Ministry explained this move with “the need to organize closer interaction between the services of the Armed Forces” and improve the “command and control of troop groupings”. Especially in light of the recent incident at Makiivka (oblast’ of Donetsk), which caused tens/hundreds of deaths among the Russian ranks. Although Gerasimov was a key figure in planning the invasion of the former satellite country, he has thus far remained under the radar with only one personal visit to the front. But the Kremlin has decided to change register for at least two reasons: first, war failures or poor results must not be made out to middle managers, but to the highest leaders of the Armed Forces, who must answer personally; second, to call for future and larger “partial mobilizations” to support the war effort, senior commanders must be the first to show themselves willing to lose their lives in the field for the Great Mother. That is why, instead of Valery Gerasimov, President Vldimir Putin has appointed as Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces the“hero of Russia” Aleksandr Lapin, first architect of the bloody and almost total liberation/occupation of the Luhansk People’s Republic. Also a way to silence the increasingly impetuous “hawks” of the “real war party” (Ramzan Kadyrov above all), who, safe and far from the front, had put him in a bad light after the painful but inevitable Russian withdrawal from the city of Lyman (oblast’ of Donetsk).
- Ukrainian war – pressure from Poland and Lithuania. During the summit of Lublin Triangle in Lviv (Galicia), the President of Poland Andrzej Duda stated that the talks with the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and the Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Volodymyr Zelens’kyj (Zelensky) concerned the defense of the invaded country from the Russian Federation and the security of theour part of Europe». In particular, Duda mentioned the intention of Warsaw and Vilnius to support Kiev on its path towards the European Union and NATO: «We told the Ukrainian president that we will support his country politically on its path both towards the EU towards the Atlantic Alliance, also in consideration of the imminent NATO summit in Vilnius”. Duda then added that Poland and Lithuania will put pressure on NATO so that “the Alliance provides Ukraine with special security guarantees”. Right in Lvivthe leader of the Lublin Triangle he said he was ready to send Leopard tanks of German production to Ukraine, as «participation in an international coalition». One way to put further pressure on Germany to make its military assets available.
- Kazakhstan. Former President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev he lost his honorary senator status and was deprived of special privileges by order of the country’s Constitutional Court. The judicial decision follows the recent presidential provision on the shelving of the name of the capital Nur-Sultan – prestige granted to the former “father of the country” in 2019 – It is on restoration of the previous name Astana (meaning “capital” in Kazakh). President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev consolidates his power and promotes a silent replacement of the old ruling class of Nazarbayev.
- Ethiopia. The Foreign Ministers of France (Catherine Colonna) and Germany (Annalena Baerbock) they flew in Addis Ababa to support the peace process. The visit to Ethiopia began the day after the announcement of the fighters of Tigrai (Tigray) of the start of the delivery of their heavy weapons, a key element of the November 2, 2022 agreement. The moment is delicate as, while the Tigrayans prepare to disarm, the Eritrean army and the Amhara forces continue to rage and occupy parts of the region. The pro-government media speak of “peace forces” but, according to the signed agreement, disarmament should take place at the same time as the withdrawal of foreign forces. The visit of the two European delegations comes a week after that of the Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China Qin Gang. A sign that Beijing is also ahead of the game in Africa.
- France-Burkina Faso. A delegation from France led by the secretary of state in charge of the development of Francophone Chrysoula Zacharopoulou she went to Ouagadougoucapital of Burkina Faso, where held talks with the head of the military junta Ibrahim Traoré who led the September coup 2022. In December, the new Burkinabé authorities had asked France to withdraw its ambassador. In an attempt to mend relations, Zacharopoulou assured that Paris will continue to provide its support to Ouagadougou, although the interference of the Russian Federation in Africa is taking root in the Sahel thanks to theactivism of the private military company Wagner.
NERD LIMES The geopolitical anniversaries of January 12
The Litukrpol brigade, which unites soldiers from Vilnius, Kiev and Warsaw, is named after the punisher of Muscovy. This first nucleus intends to cement the armies of Eastern European countries against the Russian threat. The Visegrád battle group.
The region on the Polish-Lithuanian border is the gateway to a feared Russian offensive. But also a brilliant media stunt by the Baltics to attract the attention of NATO and force it to arm the ‘Eastern front’. With all due respect to Berlin.
Events and characters that made history on January 15th.
🔍🌎 The change of military leaders in Russia and other interesting news