The war may end in 2023: trials of peace between Ukraine and Russia, but it won’t be easy

The 2023 will be the year of the end of war between Ukraine and Russia? This question is still unanswered even if, after ten months of conflict, something on the diplomatic front seems to be starting to move.

After an opening from Kiev, in the last few hours there has been insistent talk of a possible one peace conference who, with the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres in the role of mediator and landlord, could be held at the end of February.

At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky however he said he was ready to continue the war also in the year that is about to begin: “We continue to prepare the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine for next year. 2023 should be a decisive year. We understand the risks of winter, we understand what we have to do in the spring and, therefore, we understand the results that the entire defense and security sector must achieve”.

On the other hand, even the Russia it would not seem to be in a hurry to end the war, leaving the diplomatic door open in any case even if the distance between the requests of Moscow and those of Kiev still remains very wide.

The feeling is that both countries are, in one way or another, greatly tried by these ten months of war but until Use and Chinathe two stone guests, will not put pressure on their allies, it will be difficult to reach a ceasefire which is the antechamber of peace.

Ukraine and Russia, still war in 2023?

To put an end to the warUkraine it would not seem to have changed its requests. “We want to free our land from the enemy – recently declared Zelensky – go back toterritorial integrity of Ukraine and bring our people home”.

Kiev consequently would always be adamant about not ceding any territory to Russia, including that one Crimea which in fact since 2014 has been under the control of Moscow.

According to the words of the Russian Foreign Minister Serguei Lavroveven the Kremlin’s peace conditions would not seem to be acceptable for Ukraine: “Kiev must remove its military threats to Russia, or Moscow will”.

However, Vladimir Putin could not limit himself to asking for one demilitarization of Ukraine to cease the war, but also claim i territories hitherto conquered and then annexed with the four referendums of the past months.

“There cannot be a peace plan for Ukraine that does not take into account the current realities regarding Russian territory, with the entry of four regions into the Federation – explained the spokesman of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov -. Plans that do not envisage these realities cannot be considered peace plans“.

The role of the USA and China

These positions are apparently very distant and objectively irreconcilable, but some factors must be considered: theUkraine is on its last legs and depends entirely on Western aid, while the Russia he feels he has his back as long as he has China on his side.

Ergowhen Washington and Beijing will decide that the war must endthe two contenders will be able to sit down at the negotiating table and, at that point, both will have to give up something to finally sign peace.